What Went Wrong

Contrary to popular opinion, I have actually decided not to leave my day job at AIU and quit writing for the VT in order to begin a career of picking baseball playoff games. In fact, as you may have noticed, I followed up my 0-4 record in the Division Series by not picking the LCS, or mentioning the World Series before it had actually started. And I’d defend this by saying that if you were waiting for me to make my picks so you could bet your house on them, you’re just an idiot, and if you were waiting so you could pick against my selections, I’m not really interested in helping you.

I have always been of the opinion, though, that it’s generally a good idea to try and learn from one’s mistakes, and in rare instances even alter one’s behavior based on this. And in this case it’s clear that my playoff baseball rules need some serious tweaking.

First the Twins and A’s…I really just picked the wrong team here. I still think the AL Central was a lot better than the West this year, and I still think that’s a legitimate consideration. I just forgot what’s now going to be rule #5, which is that you never pick a team from Minnesota to win a playoff series unless they’re heavily favored and there’s almost no realistic way they could lose. I don’t know why this is – maybe it’s the Metrodome, maybe it’s karmic payback for their undeserved reputation as a good sports down, or maybe it’s just a run of bad luck. But that’s how things are working out right now, and it kind of sucks for the fans out there, but there’s no point in fighting it at this point.

When I picked the Yanks over the Tigers, I simply forgot the #1 most important rule of picking any playoff series in any team sport – in the playoffs, a great defensive team can, and probably will, shut down the best offensive teams they play, and the only chance the offensive team has to win is if they have a good enough defensive to respond in kind. Well, it was obvious that the Yanks didn’t have such a defense…in fact, even though all of my picks were obviously wrong, this was the only one that I’m willing to say was downright stupid. Rule #6 is also in play here, and that’s that you can’t win in baseball if you have more than a couple of crappy relievers on the playoff roster (although based on the teams that did make it through, it’s apparently ok if one of your crappy guys is the closer…should make for some interesting finishes).

Now, the Evil Empire must go back to the drawing board, and they should keep this rule in mind. I was really hoping they would start by firing Joe Torre (bear in mind that I don’t want the Yankees to do well). Look, Torre is one of the all-time great managers, it’s established by now. Winning four championships in eleven years is an absolutely ridiculous expectation, as is making the playoffs eleven times in a row, especially in baseball, the only major sport left where multiple good teams miss the playoffs every year. And yes, I know that all eleven of those teams should have made the playoffs this year, but still, how many managers do you know that make the playoffs every time they have a playoff-caliber team? That’s what I thought. Take this year, for example: the Yankees had a great team on paper, but still a very flawed one, especially as far as defense and pitching were concerned. Once you factored in the injuries they had, you could easily make the case that the White Sox, Red Sox, Angels, and Indians were all just as good or better on paper…and yet none of those teams were within four games of the playoffs, and one of them wasn’t even .500. And that’s not even mentioning the fact that Torre has to deal with Stienbrenner, the New York media, the New York fans, and more goofy, Tysonic, head-case players than there are on any other baseball team. After what Torre has done, he should be allowed to manage the Yankees until he doesn’t want to any more, even if it winds up hurting the team for a couple of seasons towards the end (like the Packers have allowed Brett Favre to).

As for the NL teams, my biggest problem was that I really didn’t follow the National League at all this year aside from my fantasy guys, and went ahead and made picks anyway. I don’t know what I really expected. For the Cards over the Padres, I’ll just invoke Rule #7: If one team seems just looks way better than the other team on paper and is just too obvious…pick them! And the Dodgers did have several likable guys who had been in the playoffs a lot, but I kind of ignored that they were predominately guys who lose in the playoffs a lot. So apparently when you build an entire team of guys that always lose in the playoffs…your team loses in the playoffs. Surprise, surprise. Side note about the Dodgers: I actually was going to put something on the Dodgers to win it all at the beginning of the playoffs, except that they were only getting 7.5 to one odds. Considering that there are 8 teams in the playoffs, and that (based on seeding/record) they should technically have been the underdogs in the whole thing, I thought those were pretty crappy odds. Sports betting is such a crock, remind me never to do it (although the Cards were 12 to one, which looks great now).

So who am I picking in the Series? Well, sorry Detroit fans, but I’m going to pick the Tigers in six. They just remind me of the 2005 Sox in every possible way, other than that they finished the season poorly, which they’ve clearly rebounded from. Plus, this is the worst Cardinals team of the last three years – any St. Louis fan will admit this – so it would be a little odd (although maybe a little fitting) if this was the one that finally broke through. And yes, I already know that Detroit is down 1-0, and that the Cards starters are all pitching over their heads (which is key in the playoffs), but I’m not really that shocked that Verlander looked bad in game one – he doesn’t really step up in big games and tends to give up the long ball too often, which is why the Sox always lit him up this year. But the Tigers are coming back with another solid starter, as they will each game this series, and I can’t think the St. Louis starters are going to keep this run going. And if you think this was a jinx attempt to prevent Magglio, Pudge, and co. from winning the whole thing…well, you can draw your own conclusions.